Before I begin, I just want to preface by saying that I love Bitcoin. I have been around since the $266 bubble in 2013 and like most people here, have an unhealthy obsession with crypto. I believe in Bitcoin's long term potential, but I have a seriously growing concern about the next few weeks/months/years or so in regards to the price of Bitcoin.
"OH MY, NOT ANOTHER FUDSTER ASSHOLE HERE TO TELL US WHY BITCOIN IS GONNA CRASH" you say.
Before you jump to that conclusion, which is the conclusion I would make at first glance of this post, hear me out.
So what's bothering me? It's really quite simple: We've never had a Bitcoin market during the beginning of an economic recession.
I think everyone here is on the same page in one regard: There is a bubble in most asset classes at present. The stock markets, bond markets, real estate markets, amongst others are in massive bubble territory. This is the result of 0% real interest rates, quantitative easing programs and other "genius" bandaid remedies that our shitshow central banks have bestowed upon us.
Like many here, I once suffered from the doomsday porn fetish. "I CAN'T WAIT UNTIL THE STOCK MARKETS CRASH SO THAT BITCOIN CAN MOON!"
…but I now realize that this is a severely flawed theory.
Why is it flawed? Because whether we like it or not, Bitcoin is still a highly speculative asset in the minds of most people. In additon, like other asset classes Bitcoin has also been the beneficiary of these 0% interest rates and financial stimulus programs.
More money in the economy = more money that can flow into a high-risk asset class like crypto. When recession hits and the money supply contracts, there will be a lot less money floating around that can flow into any asset class, including Bitcoin.
Ask yourself this, when stock markets crash…what happens first? Corporations lay off their employees (of course) because employees don't matter to these corporations, profits do. So as people are losing their jobs, and eventually their houses….are they going to be rushing out to buy crypto, a highly speculative asset class in their minds….or are they going to worry about keeping food on their families table?
In fact, I would suspect that many would SELL some crypto, in addition to not buying any, in order to pay their living expenses. A net negative for the Bitcoin price.
Sure, we are what, 5-6 bubbles into Bitcoin at this point? But this is the first time we have been in a Bitcoin bear market at the same time as the global economy is entering a recession.
This seriously worries me.
Geopolitical concerns are just compounding everything in my mind. The arrest of this Huawei CFO is a big, big deal. It is a major escalation of an ever-concerning trade dispute between the US and China. As the global economy slows down and trade wars escalate, things are going to get very, very ugly. All the signs are here for a major global recession…and I fear it will bring down Bitcoin with it.
John Q No-Coiner is not going to be interested in learning about or buying crypto when the eviction notice shows up…he's going to be looking for a new job and driving Uber to keep his family afloat.
The next few weeks really worry me. I really don't want to believe it, but I am really starting to think we see sub $1,500 levels.
Why sub $1,500 levels?
After the $1,163 bubble in late 2013, EVERYONE said we'd never go below the previous $266 high…BUT BITCOIN DOESN'T CARE WHAT WE WANT and it dropped to a low of around $160.
Not looking to FUD, just looking to voice a serious concern. Any constructive replies are appreciated.
Have a good night everyone. (It's late where I am now…fuck I need to sleep. GODDAMN YOU BITCOIN, lol)