After spending the last day to figure out WTF is happening to my investment, it boils down to this:
1) Core devs are pushing Segwit to fix a bunch of issues, give a slight bump to on-chain scaling, and open up second level scaling. There is some controversy about conflicts of interest suggesting they are controlled by Blocksteam and are avoiding on-chain scaling so they can offer paid second layer solutions. The counter argument is that on-chain scaling creates centralization, and on-chain scaling will never be able to scale to what is really needed.
2) Led by Antminer, miners have become super powerful, well capitalized, and very centralized. There seems to be evidence Antminer controls more mining power than most people realize. Not happy with CORE/Segwit, they and other miners have backed BTU. Proponents claim BTU won't enable unless 80% (currently ~33%) of hashing power is BTU. Opponents are worried about giving the the miners too much control over the blocksize and the competence of BTU devs.
3) Most exchanges are saying BTU will only be listed if replay attacks are mitigated. BTU will initially be it's own symbol (i.e. an alt) even if BTU has more hashing power than Core. At some point however, they will recognized BTU as Bitcoin if it becomes the clear winner.
Segwit will not activate in it's current form because it needs 95%. By definition, the miners must have a block size increase. As the block reward disappears, ~2000 transactions per block are not going to pay for all the security (centralized or not) we enjoy. Miners aren't trying to destroy Bitcoin with BTU (they want the BTC price to go up), but allowing BTU to activate will give miners even more power. Allowing them to set the blocksize is like giving OPEC the right to control the size of your gas tank. Unfortunately, there is a good chance they already have the 80% needed to make it happen. As a side-note, it is worth mentioning that most of the community (even in China) still support Core (or they just don't want a fork).
Core needs to get off their ass and increase the block size ASAP regardless of segwit activation. No one reasonable expects all transactions to be on-chain, but there needs to be enough space for miners to make money as the block reward decreases. Miners are just trying to defend their future economic interests. If they just had a plan to increase it to say 8mb over the next 5 years, all of this would go away and the BTC price would soar. Instead, these super smart guys will lose control of this generation's biggest financial innovation.
edit: I've done my best to be a good Bitcoin supporter here. I've spent many hours analyzing the situation, described it in a non BS way, and offered a clear solution. If you disagree with something, please articulate rather than just downvoting.